Analysis of the market status and development trend of China's gear manufacturing industry in 2021 High-end manufacturing is an important transformation direction of the industry
Gear manufacturing is a strategic and basic industry that provides equipment for all sectors of the national economy. At present, the main production capacity of gear manufacturing in China is mainly distributed in the middle and low-end products, and most of the manufacturing enterprises are mainly matched in the application fields such as manual gearbox, differential and axle transmission, and still rely heavily on imports for high-precision gear transmission devices such as automatic transmissions of automobiles, precision reducers of robots and high-speed rails. With the further implementation of national industrial policies such as "new infrastructure" and "intelligent manufacturing", gear manufacturing enterprises are forced to transform and upgrade to high-end manufacturing.
Gear manufacturing industry is a strategic and basic industry that provides equipment for various industries in the national economy. It is a technology and capital-intensive industry with high industrial relevance and large basic investment. It is an important guarantee for industrial upgrading and technological progress of various industries and a concentrated expression of the comprehensive strength of the country.
Although the history of gear transmission in China can be traced back to 3000 years ago, it was only after the founding of the People's Republic of China that the gear transmission technology in China made great progress. The development mileage of China's gear industry can be roughly divided into four stages.
After years of rapid development, the scale of China's gear industry has been expanding. In recent years, China's gear industry has made breakthroughs in R&D and industrialization of some high-end products, and its innovation capability has been significantly enhanced. At present, a production system with complete categories and meeting the supporting needs of main engines has basically been formed.
The gear production scale has rebounded.
According to the output of gear steel, which is the upstream raw material of gears, the output of gear steel in key domestic excellent and special steel enterprises fluctuated from 2016 to 2020, and rose to the highest of 3.607 million tons in 2017, then decreased year by year, and then rebounded in 2020. The cumulative output from January to November 2020 was 3.213 million tons, an increase of 7.8% year-on-year.
Enterprises focus on low-end manufacturing.
According to the data of China Machinery General Parts Industry Association, at the end of 2019, there were about 5,000 gear manufacturing enterprises in China, more than 1,000 enterprises above designated size and more than 300 backbone enterprises, among which listed companies included China High Speed Transmission, Ningbo Dongli, Hangchi Qianjin, Double Ring Transmission, Zhongdali Dede and Zhongma Transmission, etc.
According to the grades of gear products, the proportion of high, medium and low-end gear products in China is about 25%, 35% and 40% at present, and the main production capacity is mainly distributed in the low-end products. Domestic gear enterprises are mainly matched in the application fields such as manual gearbox, differential, axle transmission and engine, but high-precision gear transmission devices such as automatic transmissions, robot precision reducers and high-speed rail still rely heavily on imports.
The market price of products continues to decline.
According to the change of production price index (PPI) of bearing, gear and transmission parts manufacturing industry released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the ex-factory prices of bearings, gears and transmission parts in 2018 are running in the expansion range; In the second half of 2019, due to the macroeconomic downturn, Sino-US trade war and other factors, the industry price declined; By 2020, affected by the COVID-19 epidemic, the manufacturing market will be depressed, and the ex-factory prices of domestic bearings, gears and transmission parts will be in a downward trend as a whole.
Market size measurement.
According to the data of Gear & Electric Drive Branch of China Machinery General Parts Industry Association, the scale of China's gear market has exceeded RMB 100 billion since 2009, exceeded RMB 200 billion in 2013 and reached RMB 260 billion in 2018 five years later. At present, China's gear market ranks first in the world.
Based on the obvious positive correlation between the manufacturing industry of gear and other industrial parts and the macroeconomic situation, looking forward to referring to the GDP growth data from 2019 to 2020, it is preliminarily estimated that the market size of the domestic gear industry will be about 281.9 billion yuan by 2020.
Industry development trend analysis.
In the future, on the one hand, with the increasing investment of the country in infrastructure construction, transportation equipment, cement machinery, mining machinery and metal processing equipment will benefit significantly, which will bring market demand to the gear manufacturing industry.
On the other hand, with the implementation of national industrial policies such as "new infrastructure", "intelligent manufacturing" and green manufacturing, gear manufacturing enterprises are forced to transform and upgrade to high-quality development.
For high-quality enterprises with excellent product quality and well-equipped environmental protection facilities, they will gain comparative advantages in this process. In the long run, the development of the industry will eliminate more backward production capacity, further improve the concentration of advantageous production capacity, and promote the overall transformation of gear manufacturing industry to high-end precision manufacturing.
The above data and analysis sources refer to the Prospective Industry Research Institute.At the same time, Prospective Industry Research Institute provides industrial big data, industrial planning, industrial declaration, industrial park planning, industrial investment attraction, IPO fundraising feasibility study and other solutions.
